Don't Lie to MeMichigan's 4th District in Congress, on the record
District Economics

What H.R. 1 actually does in MI-4, provision by provision

This is the first entry in what I'm treating as a per-bill series. Rather than one district-economics page trying to cover everything at once, each piece here takes a single law with a material impact on MI-4 residents and lays out what it actually changes, sourced to the bill's text and to Census and state fiscal data for this district. H.R. 1 goes first because it's the largest single piece of legislation of Huizenga's current term, and because he voted for it twice (Roll 145 and Roll 190).

Last reviewed Sept. 23, 2026 · Updated Oct. 23, 2026 · Corrections log

Relevant tests: District Relevance · Long-Term Durability

Corrected Oct. 23, 2026: the tax table called the tips, overtime, and auto-loan interest deductions "above-the-line." The law makes them available whether or not a taxpayer itemizes, but they don't reduce adjusted gross income. The overtime row said the deduction covers "overtime pay"; it covers only the premium the Fair Labor Standards Act requires (the "half" in time-and-a-half), and the row now says so, with an example. The SNAP card said "no district-level SNAP data appears to exist publicly," and the paragraph above it said "None of the SNAP figures below are MI-4-specific" and that a district SNAP figure didn't appear to be published. The Census Bureau publishes a survey estimate of MI-4 households receiving SNAP, now shown beside the statewide figure.
Corrected Sept. 23, 2026: an earlier version said CBO's $3.4 trillion estimate included debt-service costs. It excludes them; including interest, CBO's figure is $4.1 trillion. The state-budget section also presented a July 2025 projection of FY2026 cuts as though it were current. It now notes that it's a projection and that the FY2026 budget has since been enacted.
Corrected Sept. 23, 2026 (second update): an earlier version headed the Medicaid and SNAP section "What gets cut to pay for it," which implied those cuts financed the law. CBO estimates they offset only part of its cost, and the section now lays out CBO's revenue, spending-increase, and spending-reduction components next to the net deficit effect. An earlier version also gave about 119,000 Medicaid-covered MI-4 residents, from an older data vintage, next to the work requirements without saying that most of them can't be subject to those requirements. The figure is now the ACS 2024 count, with the age and eligibility limits stated beside it.
Context: most of what's below hasn't shown up in anyone's paycheck or mailbox yet. H.R. 1's individual provisions mostly took effect for tax year 2025, but the pieces with the biggest stakes for lower-income households — Medicaid work requirements, Medicaid cost-sharing, the SALT cap's scheduled drop back to $10,000 — don't phase in until 2027 through 2030. Read the figures here as projections from the law's text and nonpartisan fiscal analysis, not as outcomes anyone has actually measured yet. You'll also see numbers at three different scales: MI-4 itself, Michigan statewide, and national. Each one is labeled for what it is, because a statewide figure isn't a district figure, however convenient that substitution would be. It's also worth stating plainly what this law costs beyond MI-4: CBO scores it at $3.4 trillion added to federal deficits over 2025–2034, or $4.1 trillion including added interest costs, on top of a national debt that's already crossed $40 trillion. The law also has a direct effect on Social Security. SSA's Chief Actuary estimated in August 2025 that, measured against the 2025 Trustees Report baseline, it moves the OASI trust fund's depletion from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032, mainly because lower income taxes on benefits mean less revenue flowing to the trust funds. That tradeoff is covered in the Fiscal Responsibility and Entitlement Durability pieces.

MI-4's starting point

Baseline, before the bill
$73,702
Median household income in MI-4 (2024).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year estimates, table DP03 (margin of error ±$3,100)
18.8%
Share of MI-4 residents with Medicaid or other means-tested public coverage (2024): about 147,000 people. Only a subset can be reached by the new work requirements, which apply to adults 19–64 covered through Medicaid expansion (in Michigan, the Healthy Michigan Plan). About 71,000 residents are Medicaid-covered adults aged 19–64. That's an upper bound, since not all of them are expansion enrollees and exemptions narrow it further.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year estimates, table C27007 (Medicaid/means-tested coverage by age)
11.4%
MI-4 poverty rate (2024).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year estimates, table DP03
4.9%
MI-4 uninsured rate (2024), the population a Medicaid eligibility change could push in either direction.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year estimates, table S2701

What changes for MI-4 households

Individual tax provisions

These provisions apply the same way in every district. The "why it matters here" column isn't about a unique local rule — it's about which of these actually bite, given MI-4's income mix and the industries that dominate it.

ProvisionWhat it doesWhy it matters in MI-4
No tax on tips Federal income-tax deduction of up to $25,000/year for qualified tips (voluntary cash or card tips in occupations the Treasury lists as customarily tipped), 2025–2028. Available whether or not the worker itemizes, but it doesn't reduce adjusted gross income. The cap shrinks by $100 for each $1,000 of modified AGI above $150,000 ($300,000 joint). Social Security and Medicare taxes still apply (P.L. 119-21, sec. 70201) Cuts taxes for lakeshore tourism-industry workers in South Haven, Saugatuck, and Douglas — seasonal, tip-dependent jobs concentrated in a few months of the year
No tax on overtime Federal income-tax deduction for the overtime premium the Fair Labor Standards Act requires, not all overtime pay: for time-and-a-half, only the "half." A worker paid $25 an hour who works 200 overtime hours earns $7,500 in overtime pay, of which $2,500 (200 × $12.50) is deductible. Overtime paid only under a union contract or state law, or above the federal minimum, doesn't count. Capped at $12,500/year ($25,000 joint; married couples must file jointly), with the same income phase-out as tips, 2025–2028. Social Security and Medicare taxes still apply (P.L. 119-21, sec. 70202; IRS Q&A) Relevant to a district with a manufacturing base (auto parts, office furniture, medical devices), where hourly workers often log overtime. It doesn't reach salaried workers exempt from federal overtime rules or, generally, farmworkers, whom the FLSA exempts from its overtime requirement. How many MI-4 workers qualify isn't published
SALT deduction cap raised Cap raised from $10,000 to $40,000 for 2025 ($20,000 for married filing separately), rising 1% a year through 2029, then reverting to $10,000 in 2030. The higher cap phases down for incomes above $500,000, but never below $10,000 Matters most for higher-income, higher-property-tax households. In MI-4, the likeliest places are its Grand Rapids-area suburbs in Ottawa County: most of Georgetown Township (Jenison), plus Hudsonville, Jamestown, and Blendon townships, all inside the district per the Census Bureau's boundary file. That's an inference from geography. District income data by township isn't shown here
Child tax credit Made permanent at $2,200 per child (2025), inflation-adjusted after Broad-based; applies to any household with qualifying children regardless of industry
Auto loan interest deduction Federal income-tax deduction, available whether or not the borrower itemizes, of up to $10,000/year of interest on loans taken after 2024 for new vehicles with final assembly in the U.S., 2025–2028. The cap shrinks by $200 for each $1,000 of modified AGI above $100,000 ($200,000 joint), so the full $10,000 phases out by $150,000 ($250,000 joint) (P.L. 119-21, sec. 70203) Narrow but real overlap with a district that makes auto parts, though it rewards buying a U.S.-assembled vehicle, not working in the industry
Estate and gift tax exemption Raised to an inflation-indexed $15 million (single) / $30 million (joint), permanent starting 2026 Relevant to family-farm succession — MI-4's specialty-crop operations (apples, blueberries, cherries) carry land values that could have pushed mid-sized farms toward the old, lower exemption

What changes for MI-4 employers

Business provisions
ProvisionWhat it doesWhy it matters in MI-4
100% bonus depreciation, made permanent Full, immediate expensing of qualified equipment placed in service after Jan. 19, 2025 Applies directly to farm equipment (tractors, irrigation systems) and manufacturing equipment purchases — applied broadly rather than targeted to any particular kind of equipment
Section 199A pass-through deduction, made permanent 20% deduction on qualified business income for sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S-corps; income phase-in range widened from $50,000/$100,000 to $75,000/$150,000 above the threshold Nationally, most farms and small businesses are organized as pass-through entities rather than C-corporations. District-level data on business structure isn't published, so the share here is an inference. The deduction was set to expire at the end of 2025 before H.R. 1

Spending reductions and cost shifts that partially offset the bill's cost

Medicaid and SNAP

According to CBO's estimate for the enacted law, the law changes the federal budget over 2025–2034 in four ways. It reduces revenues by $4.5 trillion, mostly through tax cuts. It increases some spending, including about $150 billion for defense, $129 billion for homeland security and border programs, and $46 billion under the Judiciary Committee's title, much of it for immigration enforcement. It reduces other spending, including roughly $900 billion in federal Medicaid, about $187 billion in SNAP, and about $284 billion in the education and labor title, mostly student loans. The Medicaid and SNAP savings come mostly from new work requirements and shifting costs to states. Netting the increases against the reductions, direct spending falls by $1.1 trillion. The result is a net deficit increase of $3.4 trillion, or $4.1 trillion once added debt-service costs are included (CBO, Aug. 4, 2025). So the Medicaid and SNAP reductions offset part of the law's cost, not all of it. What those Medicaid and Marketplace changes are projected to do to health coverage, and how they fit Huizenga's broader healthcare record, is covered in Healthcare & Coverage. The cards below put MI-4's Medicaid figures next to two SNAP measures that answer different questions. The MI-4 figure is a Census survey estimate of households that received SNAP at some point in the year. The Michigan figure is USDA program data on the share of people receiving it. One counts households and the other counts people, so they can't be compared directly, and neither shows how many MI-4 residents the new SNAP rules will reach.

Jan. 1, 2027
Deadline for states to begin Medicaid work requirements (states can get good-faith extensions through 2028). Expansion adults aged 19–64 must work, study, or volunteer at least 80 hours a month, or show monthly income of at least 80 times the federal minimum wage, to keep coverage. MI-4 has about 147,000 residents with Medicaid or other means-tested coverage. At most about 71,000 are adults aged 19–64, and only the expansion enrollees among them, minus exemptions, are subject to the requirement.
Source: P.L. 119-21 text, sec. 71119; district figures from ACS 2024 1-year, table C27007
35,640
MI-4 households that received SNAP at any time in the previous 12 months (2024; ±2,730), 11.4% (±0.9) of the district's households. Michigan: 13.2% (±0.3). This is a Census survey estimate of households, not USDA's administrative count of people on SNAP, so it can't be compared directly with the statewide figure beside it.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 1-year, table S2201; see the District Baseline
14.7%
Share of Michigan's population receiving SNAP, statewide (FY2025), from USDA program data. A count of people, not households, and not an MI-4 figure: USDA's program counts aren't published by congressional district.
Source: USAFacts, based on USDA data

The bill's shadow on the state budget

Indirect, but real

None of this is an MI-4 number either. It's Michigan's, and it reaches this district the same way it reaches every other one: through the state services every district draws on. The nonpartisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan estimates the Medicaid and SNAP cost-shifts alone could add over $1 billion to state spending by FY2032. Separately, the same federal business-expensing changes that help MI-4 manufacturers and farms (100% bonus depreciation, discussed above) also cut Michigan's corporate income tax collections by an estimated $677 million in FY2026, because the state's tax code follows the federal depreciation schedule. Writing in July 2025, before the state budget was finished, CRC projected that H.R. 1's provisions would force roughly $1.1 billion in General Fund cuts from the governor's proposed FY2026 budget. It also projected that H.R. 1-related costs would consume about 40% of the state's expected General Fund revenue growth by FY2032. Those were projections, not outcomes. Michigan's FY2026 budget, with a $14.1 billion General Fund, was signed on Oct. 7, 2025, and this page hasn't yet measured how much of H.R. 1's cost shift it absorbed. A tighter General Fund eventually means tighter room for the school foundation allowance, road funding, and revenue sharing that reach Allegan, Van Buren, and every other MI-4 county exactly the way they reach the rest of the state.

Sources: Citizens Research Council of Michigan, State Budget Note 2025-01, July 29, 2025; Office of the Governor, FY2026 budget signing, Oct. 7, 2025
What's not measured yet: an administrative count of MI-4 SNAP participants (the Census survey estimate above counts households that reported receiving it) and how many could lose benefits under the new work rules, a district-level estimate of how many Medicaid enrollees could lose coverage under the new work requirements versus how many already meet them, and a count of MI-4 workers in tipped or overtime-heavy jobs. Each of those would move this piece from what the law says to what it actually does here, but a reliable district-level figure for any of them doesn't appear to exist publicly right now. I'll add them the moment one does. Healthcare also deserves more than an appearance as one of H.R. 1's costs. The Healthcare & Coverage piece covers CBO's coverage estimates for this law, Huizenga's other ACA and Marketplace votes, and the healthcare legislation he has sponsored. See Methodology for the sourcing rules, or the Articles index for what else is planned.